イドレオンの伝説MMOの希少性はアーケードの可能性があります

Ever wondered how rare it is to get the highest rarity (青いもの) when launching a ball in the Arcade minigame? 良い, this guide will show you the rarity chances for arcade in Legends of Idleon MMO.

Arcade Chances

Probabilities

Ever wondered how rare it is for a Arcade ball to end up in a specific category (after travelling through all these portals)?
良い, I don’t know why I did this, but I’ve calculated it all out. Here are the results:

• gray ~63,680% [1 で 2]
• bronze ~29,581% [1 で 4]
• silver ~5,310% [1 で 19]
• gold ~1,110% [1 で 90]
• purple ~0,271% [1 で 370]
• red ~0,048% [1 で 2082]
• blue ~0,001% [1 で 93669]

Rewards to expect

One ball is worth around:

• 17,7 お金 – multiplicate that times your lvl
• 2,48617 Arcade shop money
• 0,21163 宝石
• そして、 18,74% chance to get another ball (plus dice rolls!)

This is how rare a specific drop is:

• frag [1 で 16]
• golden food [1 で 54]
• dice roll [1 で 116]
• blue candy [1 で 170]
• アイテム (silver category) [1 で 325]
• red candy [1 で 1300]
• balloon (gold category) [1 で 1830]
• 石 [1 で 4617]
• green candy [1 で 6038]
• アイテム (purple category) [1 で 6155]
• obols (purple category) [1 で 7386]
• yellow-gray candy [1 で 18465]
• 3 風船 (red category) [1 で 26020]
• obols (red category) [1 で 26020]
• pink candy [1 で 29736]
• stamp [1 で 60373]
• カード [1 で 69385]
• hat [1 で 104077]

So out of 100 ボール, results may vary greatly, しかし一般的には, you can expect about:

• 1770*lvl money
• 249 Arcade shop money
• 6 frag
• 2 golden food
• 1 blue candy (59% チャンス)
• 1 dice roll (86% チャンス)
• 21 宝石
• 19 ボール

Assumptions and How to calculate

This assumes that each ball has a probability of 1/3 to hit one of the three gray pins at the top left corner and then has a 50-50 chance to move one step downwards either to the left or to the right. また, when a ball is on the far left playfield, it is assumed to have a 100% chance to move to the right.
This basically lets you determine the probability of a ball landing in a specific category when it starts from the initial point or one of the portals.

But landing in a specific category does not mean that the ball ends up in it – Since a ball has a chance to go through a portal…
So I calculated in steps – 初め, I took all the balls which land in a category and miss the chance to go through a portal, then I looked at the remaining balls and figured out what would happen to them.

The difficulty arises once you realize that the arcade game can theoretically go on forever – since a ball landing (not ending up!) in the gray category has a chance to go to the bronze portal and has a chance to land in the gray category from there on once again. Luckily it is becoming less and less likely for a ball to go through another portal. During my calculations, I only took balls into account which end up going through at most 15 portals – which is sufficient in 99,9999999929305% of all cases.

ノート: Don’t rely on my results – although I checked some of these, I might have made calculation errors.